- EUR/USD sticks to its mildly positive tone and reacts little to the mixed US macro data.
- Hawkish Fed expectations continue to act as a tailwind for the USD and cap the upside.
- The recent range-bound price action warrants caution before placing directional bets.
The EUR/USD pair holds ccomfortably above the 1.0600 round-figure mark through the early North American session and moves little in reaction to the mixed US macro data.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index rose a modest 0.1% in November, missing expectations for a reading of 0.3%. The slight disappointment, however, was offset by an upward revision of the previous month’s reading to 0.4% and the higher-than-anticipated yearly rate of 5.5%.
Additional details showed that the Core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) climbed by 0.2% MoM in November and decelerated to a 4.7% YoY rate from 5.0% previous. Separately, the US Durable Goods Orders missed consensus estimates by a big margin and does little to impress the US Dollar bulls or provide any impetus to the EUR/USD pair.
That said, renewed speculations that the Fed will stick to its ultra-hawkish stance to tame inflation continue to act as a tailwind for the US Treasury bond yields. This should help limit any deeper USD losses and cap the upside for the EUR/USD pair. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing fresh directional bets.
Even from a technical perspective, spot prices have been oscillating in a familiar trading band over the past week or so. This further points to indecision among traders, making it prudent to wait for a sustained move in either direction in order to confirm the near-term trajectory for the EUR/USD pair.
Technical levels to watch