Forex Today: US inflation slows, Dollar tumbles


Another busy day lies ahead. During the Asian session, key reports will include Japan’s Q3 GDP, Australia’s Wage Price Index and Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures. Later in the day, data includes UK inflation data, followed by Euro zone Industrial Production. Traders will receive more US inflation figures with the Producer Price Index and information on consumption with Retail Sales.

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 15:

In October, US inflation slowed more than anticipated, data released on Tuesday showed, resulting in a sharp decline of the US Dollar across the board. The Dollar Index (DXY) lost 1.50% and fell to the 104.00 area, reaching its lowest level since early September. Risk appetite and a rally in Treasury bonds weighed further on the Greenback that looked vulnerable to more losses ahead of the Asian session. 

The US 10-year yield experienced a significant drop from 4.60% to 4.48%, marking its lowest level since September 26. Gold benefited from this development, witnessing a rally from $1,940 to $1,970. Silver joined the rally and surpassed the $23.00 mark.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October came in lower than expected, with the annual rate slowing from 3.7% to 3.2%, falling below the consensus forecast of 3.3%. The Core CPI rose by 0.2% in October, and the annual rate decreased to 4%. These figures further reinforced the prevailing narrative that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates further. 

Analysts at TD Securities:

Today’s CPI report should be a welcome relief for Fed officials: output has been advancing at a firm pace, but price pressures have continued to ebb. This should allow the Fed to be more patient in waiting for the economy to settle down at a lower pace of growth. Today’s data also supports our long-held view that the Fed is likely done with rate increases, and we continue to look for a first rate cut in June 2024.

More inflation figures are scheduled to be released in the US on Wednesday, with the Producer Price Index (PPI). Additionally, the October Retail Sales report will be of relevance, with expectations indicating a contraction of 0.3%.

The EUR/USD surged towards the 1.0900 level, surpassing the key 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Economic data from the Eurozone came in as expected, indicating a 0.1% contraction during the third quarter and a positive change in employment by 0.3%. The ZEW survey provided mixed numbers. Germany will report wholesale inflation on Wednesday, and Eurostat will release Industrial Production data.

GBP/USD experienced a significant gain of over 200 pips, reaching the 1.2500 zone and surpassing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This shift in momentum has turned the outlook bullish for the pair. On Wednesday, UK inflation data and Retail Sales figures are due. These numbers will be closely monitored, and if inflation continues to decline as expected, it is likely to keep the Bank of England on hold in terms of monetary policy decisions.

UK CPI Preview: Forecasts from four major banks, inflation notably undershooting the BoE’s forecast

USD/CHF dropped to its lowest level since early September, falling below 0.8900. Surprisingly, the Swiss franc lagged behind despite comments from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan not ruling out the possibility of more interest rate hikes in the future.

USD/JPY dropped significantly from 151.80 to 150.30 and appeared vulnerable to further losses. The Japanese Yen benefited from lower Treasury yields, but it lost strength against other G10 currencies due to risk appetite. Japan will release preliminary Q3 GDP data on Wednesday, with expectations of a 0.1% contraction. Later in the day, Industrial Production data will also be released.

AUD/USD broke above 0.6450 and surpassed 0.6500, approaching the key barrier at 0.6520. The Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to release the Wage Price Index, which is anticipated to rise by 1.3%. These figures will be significant for expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). On Thursday, jobs data will be published, providing further insights.

NZD/USD rallied from 0.5880 to above 0.6000 and appeared poised to extended gains. Electronic Card Retail Sales figures for October are due.


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