According to Rekt Capital on X, Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s most valuable crypto by market capitalization, could edge even higher after halting its mining rewards in April 2024. Rekt Capital, a crypto analyst and trader, explains this preview is based primarily on BTC’s historical performance before and after halving mining rewards.
Time To Double Down On Bitcoin?
As it is, the analyst thinks there could be an opportunity for aggressive traders to scoop the coin on every retrace, doubling down on dips to secure a better return on investments (ROI) in the months ahead.
Bitcoin is changing hands above $37,000 and remains in an uptrend following sharp gains in the past few trading weeks. The coin has eased past $30,000, a psychological round number, and $32,000, marking July 2023 highs to print new 2023 highs.
This demand is sparked by multiple factors, including the expected approval of the first spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States and partly because of the halving event in early 2024. This event will make Bitcoin scarcer as the coin’s inflation continues to dip.
How Prices Evolve Before Halving
Rekt Capital notes that anticipation and speculation occur approximately five months before the halving. Investors often seize this opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at relatively lower prices as the supply of new coins is expected to diminish.
This buying pressure drives up prices, creating a favorable entry point for long-term investors. In 2016 and 2020, the pre-halving periods were marked by significant price increases. Bitcoin prices might continue expanding if this leads, even breaking above the immediate resistance level of $40,000 in December 2023.
After this phase, there is a pre-halving rally roughly two months before halving. This time, investors are driven by excitement and anticipation and tend to “Buy the Hype” in anticipation of a post-halving price surge. This surge is often short-lived, as investors seek to “Sell the News” once halving occurs, forcing prices to lower.
The retracement, the analyst continues, is usually in double digits but has decreased in each halving stage over the years. However, even with this correction, investors tend to accumulate the coin for months, even after the halving before prices finally break out, as Bitcoin goes parabolic.
Still, the analysis is based on past events. It doesn’t consider how deep Bitcoin’s liquidity has grown over the years and the crypto market’s regulatory environment. Even so, market participants remain upbeat, buoyed by Bitcoin’s increasingly warming regulatory landscape.
Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView