“On the assumption that China re-opens next year and that the prices of Australia’s energy exports remain firm, we would look for the AUD to outperform both the GBP and the EUR,” said Rabobank analysts.
AUD is less susceptible to speculative flows
“A weakening of global growth may traditionally be associated with a softer AUD. The Aussie has previously behaved as the ‘risky’ currency within the G10 basket. This profile has its roots in the currency’s commodity links (seen as a proxy for growth), the country’s previous relatively higher interest rate profile and its long standing current account deficit.”
“The interest rate spread is no longer as marked, and Australia no longer runs a current account deficit. This likely means that the AUD is less susceptible to speculative flows.”
“We look for GBP/AUD to retreat towards 1.67 in the middle of next year and for EUR/AUD to drop below 1.50 on a 6 month view.”