S&P 500 (SPX) Analysis: Lower open likely as European gains fizzle out

  • Wednesday’s Santa rally finally arrives for S&P 500 as major stock indices close higher.
  • Optimism on Thursday proves short-lived as Europe turns lower.
  • Jobless claims release could provide some activity but are unlikely to last. 

The S&P 500 (SPX), like most US equity markets, finally got some form of Santa Claus rally on Wednesday but it was a rather poor effort. The main indices closed up about 1.5%, with the Nasdaq as ever the higher beta name as it closed up 1.6%. Hopes were high that this may usher in the start of the seasonal Santa rally but it seems unlikely. Rather the Santa slumber.

S&P 500 news: Japanese investors to repatriate capital next year?

This morning brings mixed news. Asian markets closed strongly and saw the European indices open positively. But those gains have stalled and reversed as fears over Japanese capital repatriation grow. Japanese investors are major holders of overseas assets due to the lack of yield in the domestic market. Any shift could be seismic but this is a longer-term theme for next year.

Tesla (TSLA) has double discounts on some vehicles according to Reuters, and it remains to be determined if that is symptomatic of demise in Tesla, the auto industry, or the economy as a whole. Certainly, CarMax (KMX) also disappointed investors when it released its latest earnings. CarMax used car sales were down over 22%.

S&P 500 forecast: Sideways trading in light volume

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 got most of the move up right from the open and the rest of the session was mostly sideways. Not exactly inspiring for a sustained rally. Key support then is 3,868 for Thursday’s session. 3,907 remains interim resistance. 

SPX hourly chart

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