USD: Dec ’23 is Down at 103.995.
Energies: Jan ’24 Crude is Up at 73.95.
Financials: The Dec ’23 30 Year T-Bond is Up 18 ticks and trading at 115.28.
Indices: The Dec ’23 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 40 ticks Higher and trading at 4533.25
Gold: The Dec’23 Gold contract is trading Up at 1992.40.
Initial conclusion
This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. All of Asia is trading Mixed. Europe is trading Higher at the present time.
Possible challenges to traders
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Building Permits are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
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Housing Starts are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
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FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks at 9:45 AM EST. This is Major.
Treasuries
Traders, please note that we’ve changed the Bond instrument from the 30 year (ZB) to the 10 year (ZN). They work exactly the same.
We’ve elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 10-year bond (ZN) and the S&P futures contract. The S&P contract is the Standard and Poor’s, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it’s likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Upside.
Yesterday the ZN migrated Higher at around 9:30 AM EST as the S&P hit a High at around the same time. If you look at the charts below the S&P gave a signal at around 9:30 AM and the ZN started its Upward trend. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. S&P hit a High at around 9:30 AM and migrated Lower. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I’ve changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 10-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $15.625. Please note: the front month for the ZN is now Dec ’23. The S&P contract is now Dec’ 23. I’ve changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.
Charts courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform
ZN – Dec 2023 – 11/16/23
S&P – Dec 2023 – 11/16/23
Bias
Yesterday we gave the markets a Downside bias and up until the final session minutes all indices were lower but then at the last minute the S&P and Nasdaq closed fractionally Higher. The Dow traded Lower by 46 points. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Upside.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
Wednesday and Thursday President Biden had his meeting with Chinese President Xi. All seemed well as the two men walked thru a picturesque park in the San Francisco area. But then yesterday Biden called President Xi a “Dictator” as a gaffe. I don’t know Joe, I thought you had more brains than that. This is not the way to win friends or influence people. I always viewed the current president as someone who had more tact and diplomacy than his predecessor. Now it looks like Trump wasn’t wrong about Joe. Today we are light on economic news as we only have Building Permits and Housing Starts.
