Bitcoin (BTC) stayed steady near $17,000 at the Dec. 12 Wall Street open as news involving Binance failed to spark BTC price downside.
Factors line up to “scare” Bitcoin trade
Having traded sideways throughout the weekend, the pair offered few cues to analysts, who were waiting for U.S. macroeconomic data to shake up the status quo.
This, in the form of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, would nonetheless be a pivotal moment for crypto assets, they agreed, with the potential for significant upside and downside hinging on the numbers, due Dec. 13.
Subsequent events involving the Federal Reserve would equally shape price performance, they said.
In the meantime, however, Bitcoin appeared to shrug off news that largest global exchange Binance was reportedly the target of a U.S. money laundering lawsuit.
Appearing in Reuters, a report stated that the Department of Justice (DoJ) was undecided over whether to bring charges against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, after an investigation which it began in 2018.
“Bitcoin remains stable, altcoins losing value, $BTC dominance bouncing upwards and currently rallying,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, wrote in part of a summary on the day.
Van de Poppe noted that market participants were still “scared” due to upcoming macro data and legal events tied to the FTX scandal.
Crypto sentiment more broadly remained stronger than the worst case scenario, as per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measured 27/100 on the day — still above its lowes “extreme fear” zone.
Risk-asset bottom could come after Fed pivot
On the topic of near-term market action, there were fresh bearish warnings for both crypto and risk assets.
Popular trader Moustache turned to U.S. stocks to remind followers that despite the Fed potentially pivoting on rate hikes, historically, this did not mark a turning point for performance.
“Don’t forget that the stock market has crashed very hard every time in history AFTER the FED’s Pivot,” he commented alongside a chart.
“Possible that the market will make a rally, because of the expectations of a pivot. After the official announcement: Sell the news.”
He added that the result could be a “final bottom for $BTC.”
Analyst Toni Ghinea was similarly wary, telling followers that the BTC/USD bottom would be between $11,000 and $14,000 and come in Q1 next year.
“Bottom is 11-14k. Capitulation is in Q1 2023,” he wrote, also including a bounce target of up to $30,000.
“Ignore the noise.”
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